Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
