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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

However the current field is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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